《海洋预报》| 自然因素与人类活动影响下珠江三角洲咸潮入侵研究

摘要：基于2013—2022年珠江三角洲咸潮入侵调查数据，结合水文、气象、泥沙输移、河道地形资料等多源资料，系统地分析咸潮入侵特征规律，并深入探讨自然因素和人类活动对咸潮入侵的影响。研究结果表明：珠江三角洲咸潮入侵具有显著的季节性特征，主要发生于冬、春两季，且入侵频次和上溯距离均呈增加趋势；区域潮差年际变化显示潮汐动力增强，与咸潮入侵加剧的趋势一致；高强度人类活动导致输沙率降低、河道下切，叠加海平面上升的影响，进一步加剧了咸潮灾害。研究认为短期、中期、长期径流量变化是咸潮入侵的关键因素，同时潮汐动力、海平面高度和河道地形也发挥重要作用，各影响因素之间存在复杂的相互作用关系，未来需结合流域-河口动力学模型进行量化分析。

关键词：珠江三角洲 人类活动 自然因素 咸潮入侵 气候变化 

Abstract：Based on saltwater intrusion survey data from 2013 to 2022, along with hydrological, meteorological, sediment transport, and river morphology data, this study systematically analyzes the characteristics of saltwater intrusion in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) and investigates the impacts of natural and anthropogenic factors. The results show that saltwater intrusion in the PRD exhibits distinct seasonal patterns, primarily occurring in winter and spring, with both the frequency and upstream extent of the intrusion showing an upward trend. Annual variations in regional tidal ranges suggest enhanced tidal dynamics, which align with the trend of intensified saltwater intrusion. Furthermore high-intensity human activities have led to reduced sediment discharges and river channel incision. These factors, combined with rising sea levels, have further exacerbated the severity of saltwater intrusion. This study identifies medium - , long - , and short-term variations in river discharge as the primary driver of saltwater intrusion, while tidal dynamics, sea-level rise, and river morphology also play significant roles. Given the complex interactions among these factors, future research should employ watershedestuary hydrodynamic models for quantitative analysis to provide a scientific basis for saltwater intrusion mitigation and water resource management in the PRD.

Key words：Pearl River Delta; anthropogenic disturbances; natural factors; saltwater intrusion; climate change

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