《海洋预报》| 强台风“小犬”（2314）降水特征诊断及模拟分析

发布时间：2026-04-23来源：国家海洋预报台

强台风“小犬”（2314）降水特征诊断及模拟分析

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作者：梅珺一^{1 2 3} 许冬梅^{1 2} 刘德强² 孙启龙⁴ 陈嘉君¹ 沈菲菲^{1 2 5}

单位：

1. 南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 江苏南京 210044;
2. 福建省灾害天气重点实验室/中国气象局海峡灾害天气重点开放实验室, 福建福州 35000;
3. 中山大学大气科学学院, 广东珠海

分类号：P458.1⁺24

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2026·43·第一期（67-78）

摘要：利用中尺天气预报模式（WRF）对 2314 号台风“小犬”途经我国广东省近海的过程进行数值模拟。在模拟结果与实际情况基本符合的基础上，对本次台风的演变及降水过程进行诊断分析。结果表明：台风与低层冷空气同向移动，对流层高、低层冷空气向台风内部输送，叠加纬向风的垂直切变，逐渐使得台风暖心结构崩溃、强度减弱，进而导致陆地降水强度较弱；广东省陆地上空水汽含量较高，水汽供应良好，但是缺少产生对流性强降水所需的水汽聚集条件，最终表现为较弱的层云降水；陆地上空对流层中低层大气层结趋于对流性稳定，上升运动弱，降水强度低。

关键词：近海台风数值模拟诊断分析冷空气降水

Abstract：In this paper, the mesoscale weather forecasting model (Weather Research and Forecasting Model, WRF) is used to numerically simulate the process of Typhoon "Koinu" (2314) passing through the offshore area of Guangdong Province, China. On the basis of that the simulation results are basically consistent with the actual situation, a diagnostic analysis is conducted on the evolution and precipitation process of this typhoon. The results show that: The typhoon and the low-level cold air move in the same direction, and the cold air in the upper and lower layers of the troposphere is transported into the typhoon. Together with the vertical shear of the zonal wind, it gradually causes the collapse of the typhoon's warm core structure and the weakening of its intensity, indirectly leading to a weak precipitation intensity on land. The water vapor content over the land of Guangdong Province is high, and there is also a good water vapor supply, but the conditions for water vapor aggregation to generate convective heavy precipitation are lacking, eventually resulting in weak stratus cloud precipitation. The atmospheric stratification in the middle and lower troposphere over the land tends to be convectively stable, with weak upward movement and low precipitation intensity.

Key words：offshore typhoon; numerical simulation; diagnostic analysis; cold air; precipitation