《海洋预报》| CMA数值模式对超强台风“摩羯”（2411）早期路径预报偏差分析

摘要：重点检验中国气象局数值模式在台风“摩羯”路径预报中的表现。结果显示：中国气象局区域台风预报系统（CMA_TYM）、中国气象局南海台风模式（CMA_TRAMS）和中国气象局全球同化预报系统（CMA_GFS）3套模式均存在系统性偏北偏东的路径误差，且误差随预报时效的延长呈递增趋势，其中，CMA_TRAMS 在 48 h 内预报最优，CMA_TYM 则在 72~120 h 中长期预报中误差最小。研究表明，台风生成初期，副热带高压的预测偏差是长时效预报失准的主因，具体表现为对台风东侧扰动的预报偏强、对西风槽的预报偏弱；另外，模式在台风快速增强阶段存在滞后效应，加上海气相互作用模拟不足，共同导致副热带高压形态的预测偏差，显著影响 48 h以上路径预报的准确性。

关键词：超强台风“摩羯” 模式预报偏差 副热带高压

Abstract：The super Typhoon "Yagi" (2024, No. 11) made landfall at its peak intensity in Hainan and Guangdong provinces, causing catastrophic damage. This study focuses on evaluating the performance of numerical models operated by the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) on forecasting the track of Typhoon "Yagi". The results show that the China Meteorological Administration-Regional Mesoscale Typhoon Numerical Prediction System (CMA_TYM), the China Meteorological Administration Tropical Regional Assimilation Model for the South China Sea (CMA_TRAMS), and the China Meteorological Administration Global Forecast System (CMA_GFS) all exhibit systematic track biases toward north and east, with the forecast errors increasing as the lead time extends. Among them, the CMA_TRAMS provides the most accurate forecast within 48 hours, while the CMA_TYM has the smallest error in the medium-range forecast of 72～120 hours. The forecast errors of the subtropical high in the early development stage of the typhoon are the primary causes of long-term track prediction inaccuracies. Specifically, the models tend to overestimate disturbances on the east side of the typhoon and underestimate the approaching westerly trough. In addition, a delayed response to the typhoon's rapid intensification and insufficient simulation of air-sea interactions contribute to errors in forecasting the structure of the subtropical high, significantly affecting track forecasts beyond 48 hours.    

Key words：super Typhoon "Yagi"; model forecast evaluation; subtropical high

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