《海洋预报》 | 基于WAM6-GPU海浪模式的中国近海区域海浪预报精度评估

摘要：利用中国近海的浮标观测数据，验证评估了基于WAM6-GPU海浪模式构建的西北太平洋海浪数值预报系统在中国近海的预报精度。结果表明：系统对中国近海的有效波高具有较好的预报精度，24 h平均绝对误差为0.25 m，均方根误差为0.38 m；有效波高预报误差随预报时效延长而增大，系统在高海况条件下的预报结果存在显著高估现象；有效波高预报误差存在时空差异，空间上表现为黄渤海预报误差最小，南海次之，东海误差相对较大；时间上表现为夏季预报误差相对较大。针对台风浪预报，系统可以准确预报出由台风过程引发的有效波高的变化过程，但对台风导致的有效波高数值存在明显高估，这一偏差主要是由驱动风场中台风路径与强度存在较大误差导致的。

关键词：WAM6-GPU 中国近海 有效波高 台风

Abstract：This study evaluates wave forecast accuracy over China's offshore areas from a Northwest Pacific wave numerical prediction system based on the WAM6-GPU wave model against buoy observation data. Results demonstrate that the system exhibits a good forecast performance for significant wave height(SWH) in China's coastal seas: the 24-hour forecast has a mean absolute error of 0.25 m and a root mean square error of 0.38 m. The SWH forecast error increases with the prolongation of the forecast time, and the system tends to significantly overestimate the SWH under high sea conditions. Furthermore, the SWH forecast error displays notable spatiotemporal variations. Spatially, the error is smallest in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea, followed by the South China Sea, and relatively larger in the East China Sea. Temporally, forecast errors are higher in summer. For the forecast of typhoon waves, the system can accurately predict the changes in effective wave height caused by the typhoon process, but with significant overestimation. This is mainly due to the considerable errors in the typhoon track and intensity in the wind forcing.

Key words：WAM6-GPU; China's offshore areas; significant wave height; typhoon

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