《海洋预报》｜1991—2023年中国致灾气旋暴雨特征及致灾影响

摘要：统计1991—2023年致灾气旋频数、暴雨及灾情数据，分析其时空分布特征，构建暴雨致灾指数和灾情指数，探究两者相关关系。结果表明：致灾气旋发生频次呈显著逐年上升趋势，东南沿海地区受影响最为频繁；暴雨及大暴雨格点数和日数、最大日降水量和最大过程降水量均呈显著上升趋势；致灾气旋影响日数整体自东南向西北逐级递减，其中河南省受致灾气旋“温比亚”（1818）影响，暴雨强度最大，东南沿海地区最大日降水量和最大过程降水量为全国最高；暴雨致灾指数和灾情指数显著相关。在所有致灾气旋中，台风“碧利斯”（0604）造成的灾情最为严重；分省份来看，广东省受致灾气旋影响程度最大。

关键词：致灾气旋 暴雨特征 暴雨致灾指数 灾情指数

Abstract：Based on frequency, rainstorm records, and disaster data of disaster-inducing tropical cyclones from 1991 to 2023, this study analyzes spatiotemporal distribution characteristics, constructs a rainstorm disastrous index and disaster index, and studies their correlation. The results show that: The frequency of disaster-inducing tropical cyclones shows an increasing trend, with the most frequently affected area in the southeastern coastal areas of China. All the number of grid points of rainstorm and heavy rainstorm, the number of days of rainstorm and heavy rainstorm, the maximum daily precipitation and the maximum accumulated precipitation exhibit remarkable upward trends significantly. The number of days affected by disaster-inducing tropical cyclones decreases gradually from the southeast to the northwest. The rainstorm intensity in Henan Province was the largest due to the impact of "Rumbia"(1818). The maximum daily precipitation and maximum accumulated precipitation in the southeastern coastal areas are the highest nationwide. The rainstorm disastrous index is significantly correlated with the disaster index. Among all disaster-inducing tropical cyclones, "Bilis"(0604) caused the severest damage. At the provincial level, Guangdong Province is most severely affected by disasterinducing tropical cyclones.

Key words：disaster-inducing tropical cyclones; rainstorm characteristics; rainstorm disaster index; disaster index

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