《海洋预报》| 天津港低能见度影响下的海事交通风险评估研究

摘要：为评估天津港在低能见度气象条件影响下的海事交通风险，助力海洋经济安全生产，整合分析2018—2023年天津港海事交通的相关数据和黄渤海能见度多源融合观测数据，分析低能见度对海事交通的影响，基于自然灾害风险评估理论，构建风险评估模型并划分天津港各港区风险等级。研究表明：低能见度影响下的海事交通事故与交通管制情况的空间分布基本一致，临港港区事故频次最高，主体港区与锚地管制频次最密集；整体上各港区管制率随能见度降低增长，能见度小于1 km时管制概率显著上升，一定程度上反映了该条件下海事交通风险的急剧增加；风险区划显示主体港区与临港港区为极高风险区，大港港区为较高风险区，锚地为一般风险区，生态城港区为低风险区。

关键词：天津港 低能见度 海事交通风险 自然灾害风险评估 风险区划

Abstract：To evaluate the risk of marine traffic at Tianjin port under low visibility weather conditions and support safe production in the marine economy, we collect marine traffic data at Tianjin port and multi-source fused visibility observation data of the Yellow and Bohai Seas in the period of 2018-2023, analyze the influence of low visibility on marine traffic, construct a risk assessment model based on natural disaster risk assessent theories, and classify the risk levels of each port area of Tianjin port. The study shows that: the spatial distribution of marine traffic accidents and traffic control under the influence of low visibility is basically the same, with the highest frequency of accidents in the Lingang port area, and the densest control frequency in the main port area and the anchorage. Overall, the control rate of each port area grows with the decrease of visibility, and the probability of control rises significantly when the visibility is less than 1 km, which to a certain extent reflects the sharp increase in the risk of marine traffic in the condition. The risk classification shows that the main port area and the Lingang port area are extremely high-risk areas, the Dagang port area is a high risk area, the anchorage is a medium-risk area, and the Eco-city port area is a low-risk area.

Key words：Tianjin port; low visibility; maritime traffic risk; natural hazard risk assessment; risk zoning

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